"Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me. I lift my lamp beside the golden door." The Statue of Liberty (P.S. Please be so kind as to enter through the proper channels and in an orderly fashion)

Location: Arlington, Virginia, United States

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Million-Man Rap Sheet of Democrats

If Felons Could Have Voted, National Election Outcomes Would Have Been Different

Washington, DC If current and former felons had been allowed to vote, the outcome of as many as seven U.S. Senate races and one presidential election since 1978 might have been altered. Felon disenfranchisement laws, combined with high rates of criminal punishment in the United States, sometimes play a decisive role in elections. This is the finding of a study by sociologists Christopher Uggen, University Minnesota, and Jeff Manza, Northwestern University, reported in the most recent issue of the American Sociological Review.

The right to vote is a cornerstone of democratic governance, yet there are populations in this country disenfranchised from this civic process. The United States is unique among postindustrial democracies in that most states have established restrictions on voting rights for nonincarcerated felons, which make up three-quarters of the disenfranchised felon population. Currently 48 states disenfranchise felons (although ballot restrictions are specific to each state). The incarcerated are primarily the working-class poor and African Americans who traditionally vote Democratic.

In their article, “Democratic Contraction? Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States,” Uggen and Manza analyze whether felon disenfranchisement had meaningful political consequences in past elections. They calculated the number of felons and ex-felons affected, then estimated voter turnout and vote choice based on their known characteristics (i.e., gender, race, age, income, labor force status, marital status, and education). They then adjusted for over-reporting of voting to determine the number of votes lost/gained by both Republican and Democratic candidates.

The researchers estimate that the disenfranchised felon population is composed of approximately 35 percent ex-felons, 28 percent probationers, 9 percent parolees, and 27 percent prison inmates. The impact of felon disenfranchisement would have been greatly reduced had ex-felons, parolees, and probationers—all citizens not currently in prison—been permitted to vote in all states. Their survey data suggest that Democratic candidates would have received about seven out of every ten votes cast by this disenfranchised population in 14 of the last 15 Senate election years.

“By removing those with Democratic preferences from the pool of eligible voters, felon disenfranchisement has provided a small but clear advantage to Republican candidates in every presidential and senatorial election from 1972 to 2000,” wrote Uggen and Manza.

Since 1978, there have been more than 400 Senate elections, and the outcomes of seven of those might have been different if the vote had been given to felons and ex-felons. While the percentage change is small, the difference might have had a significant long-term effect, given the well-known advantage of incumbency.

In 1978 two of the 32 Senate elections might have had different outcomes if not for felon disenfranchisement, and this would have increased the Democrat majority from 58:41 to 60:39. Of the 32 senators elected, the incumbent party retained its seat through at least 1990 in 29 cases (91 percent) and through at least 2002 in 23 cases (72 percent).

“Assuming that Democrats who might have been elected in the absence of felon disenfranchisement had held their seats as long as the Republicans who narrowly defeated them,” said Uggen and Manza, “we estimate that the Democratic Party would have gained parity in 1984 and held majority control of the U.S. Senate from 1986 to the present.”

According to Uggen and Manza, the outcome of the most contested presidential race in history, the 2000 Bush vs. Gore election, would almost certainly have been reversed had voting rights been extended to any category of disenfranchised felons. Had only ex-felons been enfranchised in Florida and participated at the estimated rate of Florida turnout (27.2 percent) and with the Democratic preference (68.9 percent), they would have yielded an additional 60,000 net votes for Gore. This would have been more than enough to overwhelm Bush’s narrow victory margin.

“If disenfranchised felons in Florida had been permitted to vote, Democrat Gore would certainly have carried the state, and the election,” said Uggen and Manza. “We can thus conclude that the outcome of the 2000 presidential race hinged on the narrower question of ex-felon disenfranchisement rather than the broader question of voting restrictions on felons currently under supervision.”

The researchers examined only national presidential and senatorial outcomes and did not explore the potential consequences of felon disenfranchisement on U.S. House, state, local, and district-level elections (e.g., in urban legislative districts, where felons and ex-felons are concentrated geographically and where disenfranchisement therefore likely has an even greater impact).

[The American Sociological Association, founded in 1905, is a non-profit membership association dedicated to serving sociologists in their work, advancing sociology as a science and profession, and promoting the contributions and use of sociology to society.]


"Game, set, match," knucklehead.


Anonymous honky tonk said...

wow...this boy is a todull maroon isntee?

Are you saying that because you like throwing blacks in prison in huge numbers and that because blacks in general -- in or out of prison -- all vote democratic, that that means most felons are democrat?


Are ya?

Well, are ya, punk?

These freaks even try to make their racism a virtue...

Well, when all you have is vices, you better call them virtues.

4:54 PM  
Anonymous damn dat phone said...

Lookee what these nigrahs done!!

How to Rig an Election:
Convicted Phone-Jammer Tells All
Disgraced Ex-GOP Consultant Allen Raymond Reveals His Dirty Tricks as Party's 'Fall Guy'
From the article: Raymond:
“And he claims that the state GOP wrote him to demand its money back after paying him to carry
out the scheme. “They were going to throw me under the bus, but first they wanted to check my
pockets to see if there was any cash there,” he writes.”
During the 2002 Elections for Senate in New Hampshire Allen Raymond, Charles McGee,
Shaun Hansen and James Tobin set about jamming the phone bank being used by the
Democratic Party to help voters on election day. Republican John E. Sununu won by a narrow
Feb. 8, 2005
L Allen Raymond pled guilty to several felony charges in federal court in Concord. He received
5 months in prison. (WIKI)
Former GOP Consultant Sentenced to Prison
Va. Man Pleaded Guilty to Making Harassing Phone Calls to N.H. Democrats
March 11, 2005
L State GOP executive director Charles McGee also pled guilty the following month and was
sentenced to seven months in prison, which he began serving April 26, 2005. He has since been
Convicted phone-jammer helping host GOP candidate workshop - May 29, 2006
May 17, 2006
L James Tobin was sentenced to 10 months in prison, to be followed by two years of
supervised release, and a fine of $10,000.
Former RNC New England Regional Director Sentenced In New Hampshire Phone
Jamming Case
November 15, 2006
L Republican Shaun Hansen, from Spokane, Wash. pled guilty to the telephone jamming
scandal after being paid $2,500.
Telemarketer pleads guilty in 2002 GOP phone jamming plot
Important note:
From Wiki:
“In August, the RNC finally confirmed that it had spent more than $722,000 for Tobin's defense
by the Washington firm of Williams & Connolly. " This support is based on his assurance and
our belief that Jim has not engaged in any wrongdoing," a spokesperson told the Associated
Press. The Union Leader reported in February 2006 that the RNC had paid $1.7 million to
Williams on the day Tobin was sentenced, for a total of $2.5 million, and would neither confirm
nor deny that it was still paying his legal expenses. The RNC's first financial report of 2006
indicated that it by then spent another $330,000. Later that year, Tobin's wife was hired by the
NRSC as a consultant on the unsuccessful re-election campaign of Rhode Island senator Lincoln
Chafee, as Northeast Strategies, a company that listed the Tobins' home as its main address.
Despite her lack of any previous experience, she was paid at $300,000.

4:57 PM  
Anonymous fat city said...

U.S. Prison Population Sets Record - washingtonpost.comA record 7 million people -- one in every 32 US adults -- were behind bars, on probation or on parole by the end of last year, a Justice Department report ...

The GOP is hard on po' crime but it like dem rich crimers real good.

If you own a corporation, you can murder a whole town and they let you off with a merit badge.

5:03 PM  
Anonymous too easy said...

John said...
Anonymous "informed":

"Party Badly Split..."

Tell me somthing new. I suggest you get your own house in order. If you've been paying attention, you'd know that a large chunk of Hillary's million-man/woman popular vote aren't too happy with Obama.
So shaddup.

Gee...I guess somebody should shaddap:

Obama Gains Among Women After Clinton Exit
By Paddy

Nice, especially the second headline. Still can't get the graph to load, so click on the headline to see them.

Now running as strongly vs. McCain among women as Clinton did

PRINCETON, NJ -- Since Hillary Clinton decided to concede the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama last week, Obama has established a lead over Republican John McCain in general-election polling. Obama's gains have come more from women than men, though he has picked up among both groups in recent days.

5:28 PM  
Anonymous turkey shoot said...

one day they're gloating about Boren...the next they say half the GOP aint nothing....

minds of loooooozers

just what we want

chickenhawks aint ready for the war of REALITY

5:30 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You must have struck a nerve, John. They're reduced to spittle-spewing about six year old newspaper articles.

Millions of Democrats in jail? I guess we ALL know now who the REAL DEGENERATES are. ROFL!

5:42 PM  
Anonymous reeeeeepent! said...

Republican Sex Scandals Dwarf Those of Democrats
Perspective by Tim King

The sexual antics of President Bill Clinton have been a dangerous tool in the Republican campaign arsenal, used to the fullest possible extent, but what have they been up to all these years?

Photo courtesy:

(SALEM, Ore.) - "He who lives in a glass house should not throw stones." It seems that old adage may be lost on the confused mass that we call modern society. The Grand Old Party, once known for controversial abolitionists, has become the moral party of today, or so their elected leaders will tell you.

As we evolve as a nation, too many people seem to be clinging to ideologies that make little sense, fighting against a woman's right to abortion while demanding that schools not teach children sex education or instruct them in the deadly virus, AIDS. It creates a vicious circle when we fight ourselves, and deny education to those who need it most.

Our nation spent more tax money conducting Ken Starr's investigation of President Bill Clinton's affair with intern Monica Lewinsky, than they did in the investigation of the September 11th 2001 attacks on the United States. Many Americans fail to see the logic behind this.

Now Oregon's Governor stands at risk, as a right wing radio pundit named Lars Larson levels an accusation against Kulongoski that could mean he could not be a lawyer in Oregon again. Larson says that Kulongoski had the goods on Goldschmidt years ago. Sources are reporting that he could have known about what has become known as the Goldschmidt scandal, as early as 1994.

Kulongoski walked angrily out of a press conference Tuesday, after a TV reporter asked him about the former governor's involvement with the teenage babysitter.

Perhaps the Governor is guilty of having known something he didn't tell. He stated that he is not, but if he is, he may lose his right to have a license to practice law. That would be a real burn if you were Ted Kulongoski, and quite a feather in the cap of Lars Larson, no doubt about it.

As Lars Larson is totally political in his pursuits and ambitions, we thought it would be interesting to offer perspective by determining just how many Republican lawmakers and officials have endured similar scrutiny in recent years for sexual perversions, extramarital affairs, etc. It is a hard number to pinpoint, it just depends on the number of years you account for.

As a subject, it was important enough to see an impeachment of former President Bill Clinton, so fair seems fair.

Then we ran into a problem with the idea of naming these scandals and their Republican perpetrators; there are so many they would hardly fit on the page. Using data from "Moral Values," these citations are otherwise attributed to the original agencies.

There follows a long but partial list.

5:45 PM  
Anonymous please...lie there on the couch said... yesterday is six years ago!!

the reality slippage is now officially psychotic

it must have been that women's poll that pushed em over

5:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am against felons voting - But by the same token, can we all agree that it is outrage that ex-felons have also been denied the vote?

6:54 PM  
Blogger John said...

Do you mean convicts vs. ex-cons, anonymous?

7:16 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

can we all agree that it is outrage that ex-felons have also been denied the vote?

Nope. Murder victims can't vote either. Where's your "outrage" for them?

5:15 AM  
Blogger John said...

MIA along with their outrage at terrorists.

7:39 AM  
Anonymous no parole said...

I completely agree that Duke Cunninghams should NEVER be allowed to vote.

12:47 PM  
Anonymous herb h hoover said...

On the economic front, the position once stigmatized as "doom and gloom" seems to be attracting new advocates and adherents-but not from the places you would think.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the organization that fosters cooperation between central banks, has warned that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s.

In its latest quarterly report, the body points out that the Great Depression of the 1930s was not foreseen and that commentators on the financial turmoil, instigated by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, may not have grasped the level of exposure that lies at its heart.

According to the BIS, complex credit instruments, a strong appetite for risk, rising levels of household debt and long-term imbalances in the world currency system, all form part of the loose monetarist policy that could result in another Great Depression."

12:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Duke Cunningham should not be allowed to vote - Until he pays his debt to society. Once that happens, it would be an outrage to disallow him the vote - just because he may have been opposed to ex-felons voting when he was in Congress, that is no reason to throw his mistakes in face in an uncharitible fashion.

I know people from college who are now successful and productive members of society - It is dumb luck that many of them are not felons because many of them just never got caught violating the many drug laws they violated.

If they had been black or poor or drive jalopies, they would have been pulled over many many times and they would have had the rap sheet that they are now blessedly free from.

Forgiveness and reconciliation are the hallmarks of a civilized society. When someone pays their debt - They paide their debt. Call me old school, but that's what I believe.

2:47 PM  
Blogger John said...


Amything's possible, dolt.

Don't get too disappouinted, but Gloom & Doom talk of a global meltdown and a 2nd Great Depression here is bunk, anti-establishment (i.e. Bush) campaign propaganda for the sake of Barack who's going to wave a magic wand and suddenly make Doomsday disappear when the cyclical recession hits the upswing.

Of course, when his tax-raising, protectionist, and anti-corporate policies assure a deeper recession (if not a real Depression), you'll blame it on "Bush Inheritance."

And what's up with "Xtian," imp? You can't bring yourself to spell out "Christ" but feel compelled to censor and "X" him out like an obscenity?

You must be the same pussy fathead from Evan's who regretted that your "ancestors couldn't murder (Jesus) twice," but then stfu when asked what you had to say about Mohammad.

I got your number. And it's 666.

2:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Btw, how would murder victims be allowed to vote? They're dead - Voting is for the living. People who die by murder are entitled to rest in peace and, with God's grace, receive their eternal reward.

That's a seperate issue than public policy for the livin, whether felon or ex felon.

2:52 PM  
Blogger John said...

Anonymous said:

"Forgiveness and reconciliation are the hallmarks of a civilized society. When someone pays their debt - They paide their debt. Call me old school, but that's what I believe."

Agreed, provisionally, once all parole and probation requirements have been fulfilled and depending on character and circumstances on a case by case basis.

2:54 PM  
Blogger John said...

Btw, how would murder victims be allowed to vote? They're dead - "Voting is for the living. People who die by murder are entitled to rest in peace and, with God's grace, receive their eternal reward.

That's a seperate issue than public policy for the livin, whether felon or ex felon."

Tell that to the families of the murdered.

2:56 PM  
Anonymous lying like a carpetbagger said...

Barack Obama learned the pitfalls of claiming the moral high ground this week when a top adviser resigned under pressure. His next challenge is whether to forfeit a huge financial edge over Republican John McCain or renege on a promise to accept public-funding limits.

Obama pledged in March 2007 to pursue an agreement with the Republicans to participate in the public-financing system, which is designed to limit the influence of big money. That was before he began shattering private-fundraising records.

Strategists from both parties say the presumptive Democratic nominee would have an advantage of more than $100 million in the general election if he declines public money and its spending restrictions. The question is how much criticism he'd take for becoming the first presidential candidate to opt out of the system, which dates back to the Watergate era.

5:47 PM  
Anonymous twisted like a twizzler said...

Who DOESN'T BELIEVE that the Obama has been bought and paid for?

5:49 PM  

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